Let’s deal with the elephant in
the room.
As of a few weeks ago, the Academy
of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences had 6,261 voting members. All of them
submit nominations for best picture.
 |
| Alejandro González Iñárritu, left, and Leonardo DiCaprio are certain to win Oscars for Best Director and Best Actor. But will their film, The Revenant, also take Best Picture? |
Nominees in most of the remaining
categories are selected via balloting by various Academy branches: editors for
editing, cinematographers for cinematography, and so forth. The same is true of
the four acting categories, where — again, as of this year’s balloting — 1,138
Academy members, all actors, determined the nominees.
So: 6,261 overall voting members,
1,138 of whom are in the actors branch. And all of whom are limited by one incontrovertible
fact: They’re only able to consider the product booked into U.S. movie theaters
during the previous calendar year. To put it another way, not one of those
Academy actor members is, was, or ever will be in a position to determine which
movies get made and/or released, in order to be voted upon.
Those decisions come from a
couple dozen different studio heads: almost all male, and white, and young, and
guided entirely by bean counters, focus groups and the panicked certainty that
more than one flop in a row likely will cost them their jobs. Ergo, they all
too frequently stick to the tried and true.
So why — why — is everybody so
upset with the Academy, when an absence of diversity clearly isn’t their fault?
If people are unhappy about
racial diversity in any category — and yes, I share their absolutely legitimate
frustration — then the anger needs to be channeled toward Hollywood’s studio
board rooms, and nowhere else. It’s a separate conversation.
The Oscars, one hopes, are
presented to honor the best work in the best movies available during a given
year. Anything else would be quota pandering, which would make a mockery of an
institution celebrating its 88th anniversary this year.
So let’s embrace the tradition
for what it is, and what it does — and should — represent. And let’s also enjoy
the time-honored pastime of trying to predict what’ll win this year.
But before we get down to cases,
some fun facts:
• The Revenant and Mad Max:
Fury Road are only the fourth and fifth films ever to receive nods in all
seven technical categories — cinematography, costume design, editing,
production design, sound editing, sound mixing and visual effects — after Titanic, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World and Hugo.
• Bridge of Spies brought
Steven Spielberg his 11th nomination for best director, a category he won
twice, for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan. Director William Wyler
still holds the record, at 13 nominations and three wins: Mrs. Miniver, The
Best Years of Our Lives and Ben-Hur. (But Spielberg still has plenty of
time!)
• On the other hand, the total number of nominations accrued by Spielberg’s various films now sits at 128 ...
to Wyler’s 127. That makes Spielberg the top nomination-gathering director of
all time.
• All six of director Alejandro González
Iñárritu’s films have earned at least one Oscar nomination.
• Jennifer Lawrence has become
the youngest actress to earn four Oscar nominations, having snatched that honor
from Kate Winslet.
• With a span of 39 years between
Sylvester Stallone’s Oscar nod for 1976’s Rocky and last year’s Creed, he
has broken the previous record of 38 years, held by Helen Hayes, Jack Palance
and Alan Arkin. Stallone also has become only the sixth actor to be nominated
twice for playing the same character, after Bing Crosby (Father O’Malley),
Peter O’Toole (King Henry II), Paul Newman (“Fast Eddie” Felson), Al Pacino
(Michael Corleone) and Cate Blanchett (Queen Elizabeth II).
• Good ol’ John Williams has
broken his own record, for having the most nominations of any person alive. His
soundtrack nomination for Star Wars: The Force Awakens is his 50TH. (Wow!)
• Speaking of music, this is the
first time in Oscar history that all five nominees for original song are the
only nominations for their respective films.
• Speaking further of music,
composer Ennio Morricone, 87 years young, has a jaw-dropping 245 score credits,
stretching back to 1962’s Crazy Desire. This is his sixth Oscar nomination,
with no victories thus far (but I believe that’s about to change).
• Irish actor Domhnall Gleeson
was lucky (talented?) enough to have starred in four of 2015’s Oscar-nominated
films: The Revenant, Brooklyn, Ex Machina and Star Wars: The Force
Awakens.
• Double nominees in the same
category are unusual, and we have two this year: costume designer Sandy Powell,
for both Carol and Cinderella; and sound mixer Andy Nelson, for both Bridge of Spies and Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
• Composer Thomas Newman and
cinematographer Roger Deakins, having both earned their 13th nominations, have
yet to win.
• Thanks to Mustang, France has
garnered 40 nominations for best foreign-language film ... but Italy has won
more: 14 to France’s 12.
• The Hunger Games has become
the highest-grossing film franchise of all time not to earn a single Oscar
nomination.
But enough stalling, I hear you
cry; let’s get on with it. OK, fine: Let’s see how many right answers I can
talk myself out of this time...
 |
| Mad Max: Fury Road is bound to win a bunch of technical awards. |
Visual
effects
Despite the impressive work done
in Ex Machina and The Martian, this is a race between the two obvious
front-runners. Much as Star Wars: The Force Awakens absolutely deserves this
award, I fear that Academy voters view the whole Star Wars franchise as been
there, done that. I therefore expect to see Andrew Jackson, Dan Oliver, Andy
Williams and Tom Wood take the stage, for Mad
Max: Fury Road.
Makeup
Tough call. A massive sweep by The Revenant easily could include this category, and it would be hard to
argue. But most of the make-up work in that film is confined to the story’s
star, as opposed to the scores of wild ’n’ crazy characters in this alternative
... so I expect to congratulate Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian
Martin, for Mad Max: Fury
Road.
Sound
mixing
This category represents the
totality of the sound-mixing process – the music, the dialogue, the background
noises and everything else – whereas the next category focuses more
specifically on fabricated sound (sound effects, like visual effects).
The Motion Picture Sound Editors’
annual Golden Reel Awards generally aren’t much help, since they divide the
spoils within additional sub-categories. On top of which, their 63rd annual
ceremony isn’t taking place until tonight (Saturday evening): too late for the results to
be cited here.
More often than not, both sound
categories go to the same film; both of this year’s categories also are
dominated by strong fantasy/sci-fi nominees. I couldn’t complain if either Star Wars: The Force Awakens or The Martian swooshes home with the awards,
but that seems unlikely. I’m expecting Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben
Osmo, for Mad Max: Fury
Road.
Sound
editing
Same answer, different names: Mark
A. Mangini and David White, for Mad
Max: Fury Road.
Production
Design
The annual Art Directors Guild
Awards, presented Jan. 31, were divided into three branches, for period,
fantasy and contemporary; the winners were, respectively, The Revenant, Mad
Max: Fury Road and The Martian.
All three are excellent choices,
but — at the risk of sounding like a broken record — none of them built an
entire post-apocalyptic future, complete with labyrinthine work farm,
crazy-quilt vehicles and industrial bric-a-brac. I’m therefore going with
production designer Colin Gibson, and set decorator Lisa Thompson, for Mad Max: Fury Road.
Costume
Design
A very, very tough call.
Finally, thankfully, we’ll likely
move away from the road warrior. (Sorry, Jenny Beaven, and Mad Max.) The
Revenant seems a weak also-ran, and Cinderella is a lightweight option
(although, it must be mentioned, it’s favored by odds-makers). That leaves two
exquisite period dramas, both highlighted by outstanding costume work.
Paco Delgado would be an
excellent choice, for The Danish Girl. So would Sandy Powell, for Carol. Delgado has been nominated twice now, with no wins; Powell has 11 nominations
and three gold statues.
The annual Costume Designers
Guild Awards, which were presented Tuesday evening, also are divided into the
same three branches: period, fantasy and contemporary. The winners were,
respectively, The Danish Girl, Mad Max and Beasts of No Nation.
Ordinarily, I’d say Powell has
this category locked up ... but she’s also the talent behind Cinderella. The
question, then: Will her two nominations dilute the vote, and send Delgado up
to the stage? I believe so ... ergo, it’ll be Paco Delgado, for The Danish Girl.
Original
song
Oscars aren’t given to bad
movies, so (with pleasure) we can discount “Earned It,” from Fifty Shades of
Grey; and “Simple Song #3,” from Youth. Actually, the best choice here has
both politics and career dedication going for it. I’m comfortably betting on The Hunting Ground — documentarian Kirby Dick’s scathing exposé of rape cover-ups on U.S.
college campuses — and its song, “Til It Happens to You,” written by eight-time
nominee (with no wins yet) Diane Warren and Lady Gaga.
Original
score
No contest. Ennio Morricone, for The Hateful Eight.
 |
| Inside Out seems a lock for Best Animated Feature. |
Animated
feature
A win by Anomalisa would be
highly annoying, but there’s no denying Charlie Kaufman’s popularity in certain
circles. When Marnie Was There certainly is the prettiest choice, and Shaun
the Sheep Movie is the funniest. That said, I’m pretty sure Pixar has the
inside track this year, because their nominee also scored a rare second
nomination, for original screenplay: recognition that it’s a clever,
intelligent film.
I therefore expect Pete Docter
and Jonas Rivera, for Inside
Out.
Foreign-language
film
Well-made Holocaust dramas rarely
fail here, and we’ve got an impressive one this year: winner of the Golden
Globe, four Cannes Film Festival awards, and scores of other regional, critics
circle and festival awards.
It’ll be Hungary, for Son of Saul.
Editing
The American Cinema Editors’ 66th
annual Eddie Awards ceremony took place Jan. 29; their awards are divided
between drama and comedy/musical, and the winners were, respectively, Mad Max:
Fury Road and The Big Short.
A sweep by The Revenant also
could include this category ... but that’d be highway robbery.
Because, let’s face it, whatever
the other merits of this choice — and there are many — it is absolutely an
editing masterpiece. Give a cheer to Margaret Sixel, for Mad Max: Fury Road.
Cinematography
Just in case you thought Mad
Max was going to take everything, the lower-category sweep stops right here
(sorry, John Seale). This is a very strong category, with five excellent
candidates; the others include Sicario, Carol and The Hateful Eight. But
I’m inclined to agree with what went down at the 30th annual American Society
of Cinematographers Awards banquet, which took place Feb. 14. This fellow is
about to make history as a triple-dipper, because he also won last year, for Birdman, and the year before, for Gravity. Emmanuel Lubezki will take a third bow, for
The Revenant.
Adapted
screenplay
I love the opportunity to reward
truly smart and innovative scripting, particularly when attached to films with
scorching social relevance.
These guys definitely deserve it,
for the most entertaining and brilliantly audacious economics lesson ever
conceived. They won the BAFTA, and they also won the Writers Guild Award, which
was presented Feb. 13; the latter is important, because screenwriters tend to
vote as an unstoppable block when it comes to Academy Awards.
Easy choice: Adam McKay and
Charles Randolph, for The Big
Short.
Original
screenplay
Also a lock, and for the same
reason.
We haven’t seen such a triumphant
saga of newspaper reporters besting impossible odds since All the President’s
Men, and the scales were arguable just as important ... perhaps even more so.
These guys also won the BAFTA and
the Writers Guild Award, and they deserve the Oscar as well: Tom McCarthy and
Josh Singer, for Spotlight.
Supporting
actor
Oh, boy.
Sentiment clearly favors
Sylvester Stallone, but will the acting category “color controversy” torpedo
his chances? On top of which, all four of the other nominees arguably did much
better, stronger work; I’d frankly prefer to see the award go to either Mark
Ruffalo (Spotlight) or Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies).
Even so, John Wayne finally won
an Oscar for True Grit, and odds-makers across the country (and the Internet)
feel comfortable betting on sentiment. So I’ll go with Sylvester Stallone, in Creed.
Supporting
actress
This category is a farce.
The infamously crafty mogul
Harvey Weinstein successfully campaigned to get Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander
into this category for, respectively, Carol and The Danish Girl. That’s ridiculous;
both are clearly, categorically starring roles. Goodness, Vikander has more
screen time in The Danish Girl than her male co-star Eddie Redmayne.
This makes the competition
grievously unfair to legitimate “supporting” nominees Jennifer Jason Leigh,
Rachel McAdams and Kate Winslet.
But since we’re forced to go
along with the charade, the result is inevitable: Alicia Vikander, for The Danish Girl.
Actor
Like there’s any question? Leonardo DiCaprio, for The Revenant.
Actress
Just as easy: Brie Larson, for Room.
Director
I’d vastly prefer to see Adam
McKay (The Big Short) or Tom McCarthy (Spotlight) take this category, but
that’s a vain hope. This other fellow won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe and the
68th annual Directors Guild of America Award (the latter presented on Feb. 6).
It’s gonna be Alejandro González
Iñárritu, for The
Revenant.
Picture
Oh, dear.
You would think, with director
and actor sewn up, that this category also would fall to The Revenant. And it
did win the Golden Globe and the BAFTA.
But it’s not the sort of
“feel-good” drama that Academy voters like to acknowledge as the year’s best
film. They prefer choices that reflect social relevance: films that speak to us
as a society. Stories with genuine heroes who do courageous work.
The Producers Guild of America,
at their 27th annual awards ceremony on Jan. 23, gave the top award to The Big
Short.
Late last week, odds makers favored Spotlight, at 9/4; The Revenant and The Big Short followed, at (respectively)
11/17 and 6/1. But the momentum has shifted; as these words are typed, The
Revenant has moved into first place, at 4/9, with Spotlight and The Big Short trailing at a
more dismal 3/1 and 13/2.
Sigh.
I
don’t care, so here’s where I yield to personal satisfaction. My heart belongs
to journalists, so I’m going with Spotlight.
Save me some popcorn...
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